Red Sox vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds — 6-28 (2024)

The Red Sox are red-hot at the plate, and a matchup with struggling Padres starter Randy Vasquez should be music to the ears of this lineup, per our MLB betting picks.

Red Sox vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds — 6-28 (1)

Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst

Jun 28, 2024 • 10:34 ET • 4 min read

The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park on Friday night. Both teams have been on a roll, but my Padres vs. Red Sox predictions for June 28 are betting on the home side to get out to an early lead.

Here are my MLB picks for this interleague showdown.

Padres vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The San Diego Padres have won seven of their last eight games, but it's tough to see an area where they have the edge today.

The Boston Red Sox are sending veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta to the hill. Pivetta hasn't been great but with a 4.06 ERA and an OBA of .237 through 11 starts, but he's been significantly better than San Diego's starter Randy Vasquez.

Vasquez has a 5.10 ERA with a .345 OBA through 10 starts and his expected ERA is even uglier at 6.81. He's been even worse away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, posting a 6.85 ERA with an OBA of .385 in five starts on the road.

The Red Sox have also been mashing at the plate lately, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS (.820) and plating 5.59 runs per game this month. San Diego's lineup has also been productive in June, posting an OPS of .775, but All-Star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. ending up on the IL last week hurts.

With Vasquez struggling on the mound and facing a red-hot Red Sox lineup, back Boston to have a lead after five innings.

MORE MLB PICKS

Padres vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Red Sox F5 -0.5

Luis Arraez Under 0.5 strikeouts

Jurickson Profar Over 0.5 hits

Jurickson Profar leads the Friars with a .316 batting average and has picked up a hit in 10 straight games.

Luis Arraez is one of the best contact hitters in the majors and has struck out just nine times in 47 games with San Diego. The left-handed Arraez strikes out even less against righties like Pivetta.

Both of these prop plays on Padres hitters are heavily juiced on their own, but when parlayed with a run line bet on Boston, it gives us a nice multiplier.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Red Sox odds

Padres vs Red Sox live odds

Padres vs Red Sox opening odds

  • Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-165) | Boston -1.5 (+140)
  • Moneyline: San Diego +130 | Boston -155
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)

Padres vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight games with four of those victories coming as underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 games overall and they've gone 7-3 in Pivetta's last 10 starts.
  • The Friars lost Tatis to an injury last Friday but have plated 6.4 runs per game in five games since.
  • Boston's bullpen is third in the majors in WAR (3.9) and seventh in ERA (3.45) while San Diego's relievers have a 1.6 WAR and are 18th in ERA (4.09).

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Padres vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have covered the First Five Innings Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI). Find moreMLB betting trends for Padres vs. Red Sox

Padres vs Red Sox game info

Location:Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date:Friday, 6-28-2024
First pitch:7:10 p.m. ET
TV:Apple TV+
Padres starting pitcher:Randy Vasquez
(2-4, 5.10 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher:Nick Pivetta
(4-4, 4.06 ERA)

Padres vs Red Sox latest injuries

Padres vs Red Sox weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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Red Sox vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds — 6-28 (2024)

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